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Economy · 2 stories · About 1 minutePublished 7:00 am IST

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  1. 01EconomyWTO raises 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast, citing AI investment and supply chain resilienceThe upgrade is not universal; WTO economists simultaneously downgraded their outlook for services trade.
  2. 04EconomyReserve Bank of India raises repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%The central bank signaled that near-term rate cuts are off the table due to inflation risks, including headline CPI expected to average 5.8% over the next three quarters.
EconomyLead story01 / 06

WTO raises 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast, citing AI investment and supply chain resilience

File photograph: World Trade Organization.
File photograph: World Trade Organization. · World Trade Organization / Wikimedia CommonsCC BY-SA 2.0

What happened

The World Trade Organization has upgraded its 2026 global merchandise trade forecast. Economists attribute the growth to robust AI-related capital investment and improved supply chain adaptation following disruptions from the Middle East conflict, which allowed goods trade to outperform expectations during the first half of the year.

Why it matters

The upgrade is not universal; WTO economists simultaneously downgraded their outlook for services trade. The data reveals an uneven economic recovery, as services and specific regions remain significantly more vulnerable to the ongoing pressures and disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Bigger picture

The divergence between goods and services highlights the bifurcated nature of international commerce. While AI investment and logistical resilience are currently insulating merchandise trade, geopolitical instability continues to constrain growth in the services sector, creating an unpredictable global landscape.

Watch next

Monitor future WTO reports for updated projections on the divergent performance between merchandise and services trade amid regional conflict.

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Economy04 / 06

Reserve Bank of India raises repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%

File photograph: Reserve Bank of India.
File photograph: Reserve Bank of India. · Vyacheslav Argenberg / Wikimedia CommonsCC BY 4.0

What happened

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously increased the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. The standing deposit facility rate was adjusted to 5.25%, with the marginal standing facility rate and Bank Rate moving to 5.75%. The committee also shifted its policy stance to calibrated tightening.

Why it matters

The central bank signaled that near-term rate cuts are off the table due to inflation risks, including headline CPI expected to average 5.8% over the next three quarters. Future policy will be limited to potential rate hikes or pauses based on evolving economic data.

Bigger picture

The decision reflects global challenges, including the reescalation of the West Asia conflict and rising energy costs. These factors, alongside an appreciating dollar and tightening global financial conditions, have spurred similar monetary policy responses among major central banks.

Watch next

Monitor future monetary policy committee decisions and potential interest rate adjustments through February 2027 based on growth-inflation developments.

Back to today in 60 seconds

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