WTO raises 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast, citing AI investment and supply chain resilience
What happened
The World Trade Organization has upgraded its 2026 global merchandise trade forecast. Economists attribute the growth to robust AI-related capital investment and improved supply chain adaptation following disruptions from the Middle East conflict, which allowed goods trade to outperform expectations during the first half of the year.
Why it matters
The upgrade is not universal; WTO economists simultaneously downgraded their outlook for services trade. The data reveals an uneven economic recovery, as services and specific regions remain significantly more vulnerable to the ongoing pressures and disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict.
Bigger picture
The divergence between goods and services highlights the bifurcated nature of international commerce. While AI investment and logistical resilience are currently insulating merchandise trade, geopolitical instability continues to constrain growth in the services sector, creating an unpredictable global landscape.
Watch next
Monitor future WTO reports for updated projections on the divergent performance between merchandise and services trade amid regional conflict.